Charlie Brown In Dead Heat Against Doolittle!

Have you read the news lately? Hear anything along the lines "this incumbent is safe", "Democratic attacks won't stick"?

Read the following excerpt from today's Bloomberg article on the campaign in CA-04. Just for fun:

It doesn't seem to be working out that way. Less than two months before the midterm congressional elections, Doolittle is the favorite to retain his seat, thanks to his delivery of federal largesse to his northeastern California district, and to its Republican registration edge.

Doolittle's success so far -- the non-partisan Cook Political Report in Washington rates him a likely winner -- shows the difficulties facing Democrats as they seek to make Republican ethics a campaign issue. While corruption charges are contributing to a general anti-incumbent sentiment nationwide -- much as in 1994, when Republicans won control of Congress -- Democrats are having trouble wielding it effectively against entrenched incumbents such as Doolittle.

"Even if the 'culture of corruption' tag sticks there, it's going to be tough because it's such a heavily Republican district,'' said Christopher Witko, an assistant professor of government at California State University, Sacramento.

I really wonder how Mr. Salant et.al. will explain the following poll results, published today:

Charlie Brown 39%
John Doolittle 41%

Remember that there is a large voter registration advantage in this district (48-30), that Doolittle is an incumbent, that no pundit has CA-04 in the first or second tier for competitive seats this fall but even more interesting is that Doolittle's looking awfully vulnerable in this poll even though he has a 86%-33% name recognition advantage.

So, in this Republican district more people intend to vote for a man who's name they don't even recognize than for the Republican incumbent.

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