A blog on progressive news and politics on both the California and Nevada sides of Lake Tahoe which aims at helping to elect Democrats and Turn Tahoe Blue. The blog is written from Germany by a former German exchange student at George Whittell High School in Zephyr Cove, Nevada.

Thursday, September 14, 2006

RGJ Poll: Democrats Set To Break Republican Hold On State Constitutional Offices

The Reno Gazette-Journal today continues with its reporting on a set of polls. Today's focus is on the five constitutional offices: Lieutenant Governor, Treasurer, Secretary of State, Attorney General and Controller. For some reason the RGJ only polled the first three of these races. Apparently the Attorney General race seems like a done deal and maybe they don't think the controller's race important enough. If that is so one has to wonder why they polled the Lieutenant Governor's race as that is not the most important office either.

As for the results, one Republican lead, one Democratic lead, one toss-up:

Lieutenant Governor:

Bob Unger (D) 30%
Brian Krolicki (R) 44%

Secretary of State:

Ross Miller (D) 42%
Danny Tarkanian (R) 33%

Treasurer:

Kate Marshall (D) 35%
Mark DeStefano (R) 37%

As for the candidates' reaction to these numbers I'll refer you to Ray Hagar's report in the RGJ (which has a very misleading headline).

The numbers for the Lieutenant Governor's race can be very easily explained. Brian Krolicki has been elected twice as State Treasurer, Bob Unger has not held office before. Furthermore, Krolicki got a lot of media attention because of his porn attacks on Barbara Lee Woollen in the primary. That he (just like Secretary of State Dean Heller in the CD-02 poll yesterday) can't break 50% with all his name recognition and having been elected twice before can't be good for him. Watch Unger's numbers improve in future polls and Krolicki's should remain stagnant.

The Secretary of State's race seems almost like a done deal to me. Ross Miller is clearly the more competent candidate, has better name rec (in these days it's better to have a former Governor as dad, than a former college basketball coach) and out of state support. Democrats across the country have realized how important the Secretary of State office is after the voting disasters in Florida (2000) Ohio (2004) and just this week in Maryland, all under the watch of Republicans in this office.

As for the treasurer's race. DeStefano won the Republican primary by default. I think if Kathy Augustine were still alive she'd be the Republican nominee. Marshall is more qualified and doesn't have the biographical problems DeStefano has. So, this office should break for Democrats this year.

On the two races the RGJ didn't poll I would say Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto has a lock on the Attorney General race. Democrat Kim Wallin (not Wallen!) faces a disadvantage in the Controller's race because her opponent was installed as Controller by the Governor after Augustine's death. If Democrats win the Governor's race and several other races I believe Kim Wallin will also win, if by a close margin.

1 Comments:

Blogger Not Zogby said...

Does anybody actually read your "analysis" and take it seriously?

9:08 AM

 

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