Will Karl Rove Lose His Childhood District Tomorrow?

A lot of us were mighty afraid what "October surprise" the almighty Karl Rove may have in store of us this year. Somehow that one big surprise that could swing the election back to the Republicans never materialized. Instead there were oh so many October surprises the Republicans were not so happy about.

Therefore, tomorrow could be a historic day. In Nevada's 2nd district this could especially be so. Jill Derby is on the course to make history (as the Las Vegas Sun observed) by being the first Democrat ever elected from this predominantly Republican district which was created after the 1980 census and encompasses almost all of Nevada except most of Clark County.

Here's the fun part: Karl Rove spent five years in the city of Sparks, Reno's little sister from 1961-66. He was 16 when he left Nevada but somehow, 40 years later, Nevada still seems to be on Rove's mind. Why else would he have sent President Bush twice within one month to this usually safe Republican district?

This from a Reno News and Review report from a year ago:

Rove's success is a surprise to those who knew him because he was so docile in Sparks--"quiet" is the term that keeps being repeated. No one remembers him as any kind of a strategic thinker.

We will find out tomorrow night if the recollections of Sparks citizens from 40 years ago will prove true for the race between Democrat Jill Derby and Republican Dean Heller. Derby's holding her own, tied in an internal poll, and Heller always stayed below 50% in every independent poll. Pollster.com shows an average six point lead for Heller with only four polls done in September and October.

What's more important is that the major newspaper in Northern Nevada, the Reno Gazette-Journal, endorsed Jill Derby over Heller:

Either candidate would be likely to struggle in a first term in Congress, though much will depend on which party has control of the House after the Nov. 7 election. Certainly, it's difficult to imagine that Derby would be very successful in her quest to change the ingrained culture of Congress.

However, Derby is right when she says that the public is fed up with the way Congress has behaved in recent years. She's also right that it has a responsibility to take an oversight interest in the policies of the current administration "" any administration "" instead of simply rubber-stamping those decisions.

And she's right, there has been too little serious debate on very important issues, too much finger-pointing from both sides of the aisle, too many decisions made for political gain, too much kowtowing to special interests and too much money spent on guaranteeing re-election.

Those are the kinds of issues the candidates should be talking about in the final weeks of the campaign, discussions that so far sadly have been lacking.

A vote for Derby appears to be the best way to get those issues in the open.

Many Democratic heavyweights, among them Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer and General Wesley Clark have endorsed Jill Derby and campaigned for her. Within the last month national blogs like Daily Kos and AMERICAblog have also taken notice, the latter raising a whopping $17,000 for Jill within a couple of days.

Tomorrow could be a historic day. There could be a sweep, a wave, a tsunami. Whatever you want to call it. And Karl Rove's childhold district might very well send a Democrat to Congress.

Jill Derby's Campaign Website